Download e-book for iPad: Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Theory and Application by Mykel J. Kochenderfer

By Mykel J. Kochenderfer

ISBN-10: 0262331713

ISBN-13: 9780262331715

Many vital difficulties contain determination making below uncertainty -- that's, opting for activities in response to usually imperfect observations, with unknown results. Designers of computerized determination help structures needs to keep in mind some of the resources of uncertainty whereas balancing the a number of targets of the approach. This publication offers an creation to the demanding situations of determination making below uncertainty from a computational viewpoint. It provides either the idea in the back of determination making types and algorithms and a suite of instance functions that variety from speech attractiveness to airplane collision avoidance.

Focusing on tools for designing choice brokers, making plans and reinforcement studying, the publication covers probabilistic types, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical version that captures probabilistic relationships among variables; software idea as a framework for knowing optimum determination making less than uncertainty; Markov selection strategies as a style for modeling sequential difficulties; version uncertainty; country uncertainty; and cooperative determination making related to a number of interacting brokers. a chain of purposes exhibits how the theoretical innovations could be utilized to structures for attribute-based individual seek, speech functions, collision avoidance, and unmanned airplane continual surveillance.

Decision Making lower than Uncertainty unifies study from diversified groups utilizing constant notation, and is obtainable to scholars and researchers throughout engineering disciplines who've a few past publicity to likelihood thought and calculus. it may be used as a textual content for complicated undergraduate and graduate scholars in fields together with computing device technological know-how, aerospace and electric engineering, and administration technology. it is going to even be a important expert reference for researchers in a number of disciplines.

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It presents decision networks as a generalization of Bayesian networks with the introduction of decision and utility nodes. The chapter also discusses decision making in the context of multiple, potentially competing, agents. • Chapter 4: Sequential Problems discusses the problem of making decisions over time when the outcomes of the actions are probabilistic. It introduces Markov decision processes as a way to model such problems. The chapter shows how to compute optimal solutions using a process known as dynamic programming.

Consider the uniform distribution (0, 10), which assigns equal probability to all values in the range (0, 10). The probability that a random sample from this distribution is equal to the constant π is essentially zero. However, we can define non-zero probabilities for samples being within some interval, say (3, 4). If P (A) = (0, 10), then the probability that a sample a lies between 3 and 4 is 1/10. Distributions over continuous variables can be represented using either a cumulative distribution function or a probability density function.

If all paths between A and B are d-separated by , then (A⊥B | ). Sometimes the term Markov blanket is used to refer to the minimal set of nodes that d-separates a node from all other nodes. 2, there is only one v-structure, B → E ← S . In the absence of information about E , D, or C , then B and S are independent. Given E , D, or C , however, B and S are no longer independent; influence can flow from B to S . For example, if we know that we have had an electrical system failure, then knowing that we have had a battery failure reduces our belief that there has been a solar panel failure.

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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Theory and Application (MIT Lincoln Laboratory Series) by Mykel J. Kochenderfer


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